HOW THE PULSE SCORE WORKS

The methodology.

One fused number per coin, from every engine the desk runs. This page names every input, its weight, how calls are logged, and how they are graded. What is proven and what is still being validated are labeled separately.

01 / THE SCORE

Inputs and weights

Each component is mapped to -100..+100 first, then weighted. Weights sum to 105, verified at page build from solscore.py.

ComponentWeightWhat it measures
patterns30pattern-engine score (-8..+8)
tradingview15TV gauge 1D/4H ratings
etf15BTC/ETH spot ETF streak (Farside)
options10Deribit put/call OI (BTC/ETH)
polymarket10crowd upside odds vs dip odds (XRP/BTC/ETH)
momentum57d price change
funding5perp funding, contrarian (crowded longs = bearish)
orderbook5Kraken L2 bid/ask imbalance
coinbase5Coinbase premium (US bid vs world)
social5Threads crowd net sentiment (idea #160; hourly
Honest coverage. Coins without a feed get the weight redistributed across the components they do have: options and ETF flows are BTC/ETH only, Polymarket covers XRP/BTC/ETH plus SOL/DOGE/LINK where real markets exist, CME positioning covers BTC/ETH/SOL, whales cover all coins except XMR. A component that does not exist for a coin is absent from its score, never invented.
02 / SCORE BANDS

Reading the number

The same cut points everywhere: the site, the YouTube scripts, and the paper trading portfolios.

ScoreLabelWhat it means
60 to 100Strong BullComposite leaning hard into the move
20 to 60BullGreen, not screaming (YouTube reads this "constructive")
-20 to 20NeutralThe score does not trust the move
-60 to -20BearFade the move
-100 to -60Strong BearThe composite wants out
The site's market table collapses this to three tags: BULL (Bull or Strong Bull), NEUTRAL, BEAR (Bear or Strong Bear). A score is evidence, not a call: the hourly briefing's BOTTOM LINE verdict is a separate, falsifiable claim.
03 / GRADING

How calls are scored

Every hourly briefing publishes one verdict per coin (bullish, bearish, or neutral) with a stance, a conviction level, and an entry price. Each is logged before the outcome is known.

The window

Each call is graded 24 hours after it is made, against live Kraken spot. The 24-hour grading delay is enforced in scorecard.py.

Win / loss / push

Bullish wins if the 24h forward return exceeds +1.0%, loses below -1.0%, otherwise pushes. Bearish is mirrored. Neutral calls never win or lose: they are reported as pushes.

Kill levels

Each call may carry a kill price. A long dies if the 24h low touches it, a short if the 24h high does. Killed calls count as losses and are tracked in their own bucket.

Conviction weighting

Win rates are also reported conviction-weighted: high counts triple, medium double, low single. Sizing the score to the stated confidence keeps big claims honest.

Anti-cherry-picking. Every BOTTOM LINE verdict goes into the ledger at publish time. Nothing is backfilled. Wins and losses both stay on the call ledger.
04 / VALIDATION STATUS

What is proven, what is notBeing validated

Describe what is true, label what is still being tested.

Proven: the ledger exists

Calls are logged before outcomes, graded on a fixed rule, and published with wins and losses. That is a process claim, and the process is running.

Being validated: the score predicts

The Pulse Score's predictive value is unproven at any sample size. Paper trading two strategies against the published scores is the live test, shown on the track record page.

Being validated: whale direction labels

to_exchange / off_exchange labels are behavioral proxies from a small verified wallet list. Their accuracy against subsequent price action has not been audited yet.

Being validated: small samples

A 60% win rate on 25 calls can easily be luck. Early numbers are a baseline being built, not a verdict. The longer the ledger runs, the harder it is to fake.

Methodology generated Sep 24, 2026 21:03 MDT from solscore.py and scorecard.py. Weights verified to sum to 105 at build.